Visualization Randomization

Friday, April 21, 2017

A day late, a beer short

Happy four twenty...one. Enjoy By 04.20.17 and I drank this on 04.21.17. Complete failure, this beer is ruined. This "devastatingly fresh double IPA" had completely tipped over in a day. With all of Stone's prowess and resources I was amazed they couldn't get a beer this loaded with hops and alcohol last 24 hours longer. I'm speculating of course, I couldn't possibly know how much better this beer would have been if I drank it yesterday. Yesterday, this beer was the stuff dreams are made of. Today, well, it's just another over cellared beer past its prime. A beer held on to for too long by a well meaning, but distracted and forgetful wannabe beer connoisseur.
What day is it?

Friday, September 2, 2016

The rise of IPA ABV?

Are beers, specifically IPAs-the default craft beer, getting stronger? The rise of the IPAs included for a while a rise of IBUs and while that has calmed down with the influx of juicy beers I've had the feeling that ABV was also ticking up along the way. Session beers, including Session IPAs have had some popularity and I crunched my data to see if my assumptions held true. Now the Dow/S&P is not the market and my drinking does not represent a measured sample of the beer industry, but let's see what it looks like anyhow.

y = -0.0025x + 6.654
R² = 0.0093

Bam. ABV is not rising and with a regression slope of -0.0025x is in a bit of a decline over the last four years. This is an ever so slight decline and is reflected in the fairly constant average ABV per year. What is interesting in this data is the increase in variance and low R². The yearly standard deviation has increased from 0.5 in 2012 to 1.2 in 2016.

Just the numbers

Year Count MIN MAX AVG STDEV
2012 21 5.5 7.5 6.5 0.5
2013 20 6.0 8.0 6.7 0.6
2014 18 4.5 8.1 6.6 0.8
2015 36 4.3 8.0 6.6 0.9
2016 16 4.0 8.0 6.1 1.2

Why the greater variance? I see it as fewer beers taking the middle ground for an IPA, around 6.5 ABV, and more trying to differentiate with either flirting in the DIPA range or dropping down to a session level. Either way this is good to see more variety, even within just the IPA range, and not just a race to make a stronger beer.

Tuesday, March 22, 2016

Spurious correlation and why Marritt Paulson should care what I drink

I like beer, that should be obvious. I like soccer, a little less obvious on this site, but plain as an Italian flop over on Twitter. Let's mash some beer data with soccer data and see what happens! Drinking beer while watching soccer is great. Drinking beer while playing soccer, less so. Today's new metric is PpP or maybe P3 or P cubed. With Points per Pairing I'm very scientifically measuring how many points the Portland Timbers earn based on the style or brewer of beer I drink.

The data part, I pulled down my records of new beers by date and joined it up with Timbers match results from Wikipedia (no pre-season), tossing out results with only a single style or brewer. The results are as clear as a well fined K├Âlsch,



I should only be drinking Imperial IPAs from Fort George during Timbers matches and stay the hell away from Strong Pale Ales by Breakside or Double Mountain. As luck (or forecasting with the precision of a ratty deck of tarot cards) will have it I have a big can of Magnanimous IPA, clocking in at 7% ABV, in my fridge right now, just waiting for the April 3rd clash against Orlando City SC.

I'm sure Merritt Paulson and the rest of the club will appreciate me refraining from sampling a beverage from Double Mountain or Breakside when we take on the Lions.