Friday, September 2, 2016

The rise of IPA ABV?

Are beers, specifically IPAs-the default craft beer, getting stronger? The rise of the IPAs included for a while a rise of IBUs and while that has calmed down with the influx of juicy beers I've had the feeling that ABV was also ticking up along the way. Session beers, including Session IPAs have had some popularity and I crunched my data to see if my assumptions held true. Now the Dow/S&P is not the market and my drinking does not represent a measured sample of the beer industry, but let's see what it looks like anyhow.

y = -0.0025x + 6.654
R² = 0.0093

Bam. ABV is not rising and with a regression slope of -0.0025x is in a bit of a decline over the last four years. This is an ever so slight decline and is reflected in the fairly constant average ABV per year. What is interesting in this data is the increase in variance and low R². The yearly standard deviation has increased from 0.5 in 2012 to 1.2 in 2016.

Just the numbers

2012 21 5.5 7.5 6.5 0.5
2013 20 6.0 8.0 6.7 0.6
2014 18 4.5 8.1 6.6 0.8
2015 36 4.3 8.0 6.6 0.9
2016 16 4.0 8.0 6.1 1.2

Why the greater variance? I see it as fewer beers taking the middle ground for an IPA, around 6.5 ABV, and more trying to differentiate with either flirting in the DIPA range or dropping down to a session level. Either way this is good to see more variety, even within just the IPA range, and not just a race to make a stronger beer.

Tuesday, March 22, 2016

Spurious correlation and why Marritt Paulson should care what I drink

I like beer, that should be obvious. I like soccer, a little less obvious on this site, but plain as an Italian flop over on Twitter. Let's mash some beer data with soccer data and see what happens! Drinking beer while watching soccer is great. Drinking beer while playing soccer, less so. Today's new metric is PpP or maybe P3 or P cubed. With Points per Pairing I'm very scientifically measuring how many points the Portland Timbers earn based on the style or brewer of beer I drink.

The data part, I pulled down my records of new beers by date and joined it up with Timbers match results from Wikipedia (no pre-season), tossing out results with only a single style or brewer. The results are as clear as a well fined K├Âlsch,

I should only be drinking Imperial IPAs from Fort George during Timbers matches and stay the hell away from Strong Pale Ales by Breakside or Double Mountain. As luck (or forecasting with the precision of a ratty deck of tarot cards) will have it I have a big can of Magnanimous IPA, clocking in at 7% ABV, in my fridge right now, just waiting for the April 3rd clash against Orlando City SC.

I'm sure Merritt Paulson and the rest of the club will appreciate me refraining from sampling a beverage from Double Mountain or Breakside when we take on the Lions.

Saturday, January 2, 2016

Beer in review

2015 a beer in review

The perfect time to quantify my quaffing is at the end of one year and the beginning of a new. The year makes such an easy delineation for queries and aggregation. So I present to you data sets of new beers I've drank WHERE YEAR(beerDate) = 2015.

Best new brewery: pFriem Family Brewers (6)
pFriem is not a new brewery, getting started in 2012, but they started bottling in 2015 and I couldn't have been happier. Their beer is outstanding and now available in bottles a few blocks from my house.

Name Style Date
IPA American-Style India Pale Ale  2015-04-17
Blond IPA American-Style India Pale Ale  2015-05-04
Belgian Strong Blonde Belgian-Style Pale Strong Ale  2015-07-05
Belgian Wit Belgian-Style Witbier  2015-08-18
CDA American-Style Black Ale  2015-12-17
Mosaic Single-Hop Pale Ale American-Style Pale Ale  2015-12-30

Biggest Beer: Stone Brewing Company Belgo Anise Imperial Russian Stout (10.5 ABV)
I enjoyed this beer on November, 16. This monster beer tasted of chocolate, coffee and anise and was thick as motor oil.

Top 4 breweries: There was a tie at 5th place
Thanks to the Vertical Epic Series Stone solidly took 1st place.

Brewery Total Beers
Stone Brewing Company 10
pFriem Family Brewers 5
Sierra Nevada Brewing Company 5
New Belgium Brewing 4

I've only had one: 37
There were 37 breweries from which I only had 1 beer last year. Looking through this list it is hard to imagine that I only brought one home, but numbers don't lie (unless you make them). There are so many great breweries below and yet there are so many beers out there, I can't hope to drink them all. Well, I could, but that's not such a good idea.

Alameda Brewhouse, Amnesia, Backwoods Brewing, Bend Brewing Company, Brasserie Dupont sprl, Breakside Brewery, Brew Dog, Buoy Beer Company, Cascade Lakes Brewing Company, Eel River Brewing Company, Ex Novo Brewing Company, Fish Brewing Company, Full Sail Brewing Brewing Company, Gigantic Brewing Company, Gilgamesh, Good Life Brewing Company, Hales Ales, Heater Allen Brewing, Heretic Brewing Company, Hoegaarden, Hop Valley Brewing Company, Hopworks Urban Brewery, Loowit Brewering Company, Narragansett Beer, Old Schoolhouse Brewery, Old Town Brewing, Payette Brewing Company, Pelican Pub & Brewery, Planktown Brewing, Pyramid Breweries, Rogue Brewery, Stickman Brewing Company, Sun River Brewing Company, Tailgate, The Traveler Beer Company, Walking Man Brewing, and Worthy Brewing.

Beer Styles: 33
Beer styles are fuzzy, but my somewhat educated guesses ended up with me having 33 different beer styles in 2015. From Belgian-Style Pale Strong Ale to British-Style Imperial Stout and from French & Belgian-Style Saison to German-Style Pilsener. Not surprising the India Pale Ale varieties (American, Imperial and Session) totaled up to 49% of my intake.

A few more numbers for 2015;
97 new beers
56 breweries
13 beers in October, most popular month
3 beers in February, least popular month